NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
0-0 | Road
122
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
0-0 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
NO By 1-7 points
1.4%
NO By 8-14 points
0.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
6.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
105
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
126
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
New Orleans
110
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
114
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-4)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.6% more
Memphis: 4.3
vs
New Orleans: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+18.2% more
Memphis: 17.9
vs
New Orleans: 15.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Memphis: 34.7%
vs
New Orleans: 28.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
New Orleans: 83.2%
vs
Memphis: 77.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
105.0
122
MEM Score
126.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 28.1
29.7 / 37.0
Assists
25.5 / 24.1
20.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.0
12.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 46.2
51.2 / 45.9
Free Throw %
77.2 / 83.2
81.4 / 71.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 44.6
39.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.7 / 7.5
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.9 / 15.1
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
NO
MEM
NO
ML
57%
59-44
62%
98-61
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
107-51-1
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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