SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
0-0 | Road
116
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
0-0 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
SUNS
0%
KINGS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
SAC By 1-7 points
3.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.6%
PHX By 1-7 points
12.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
102
SACRAMENTO
Phoenix
119
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (-4)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.0
Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PHX @ SAC
114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026
SAC @ PHX
102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025
PHX @ SAC
112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025
SAC @ PHX
116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025
PHX @ SAC
98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.2% more
Phoenix: 11.6
vs
Sacramento: 7.6
Blocks (L5)
+50.3% more
Phoenix: 5.5
vs
Sacramento: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Phoenix: 27.5
vs
Sacramento: 22.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Phoenix: 34.0%
vs
Sacramento: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
102.0
116
PHX Score
119.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 30.5
29.4 / 37.5
Assists
27.5 / 22.9
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.7
7.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 46.1
47.4 / 50.0
Free Throw %
60.7 / 78.8
71.4 / 56.5
Rebounding
40.4 / 43.7
51.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.6 / 7.6
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 15.6
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
SAC
PHX
SAC
ML
57%
60-45
55%
55-45
51%
45-43
61%
50-32
ATS
58%
59-43-3
54%
52-45-3
51%
45-43
61%
50-32
TTL
59%
61-42-2
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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