NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
1-3-0 | Road
5
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
2-3-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 4.00 | 0.875 | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 5.10 | 0.783 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00 Ldr
GAA
5.10
0.875 Ldr
Save %
0.783
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
SENATORS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
OTT By 1 goal
12.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
OTT @ NYI
3 - 0
Mar 19, 2026
NYI @ OTT
2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025
NYI @ OTT
5 - 4
Jan 14, 2025
OTT @ NYI
2 - 0
Dec 8, 2024
NYI @ OTT
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.5% more
New York: 32.3
vs
Ottawa: 29.5
Takeaways (L5)
+34.4% more
Ottawa: 4.6
vs
New York: 3.4
Hits (L5)
+13.2% more
Ottawa: 23.9
vs
New York: 21.1
Power Play % (L5)
+11.6%
Ottawa: 28.5%
vs
New York: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
4.0
5
OTT Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 14.5
9.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
59.9 / 48.8
51.9 / 48.1
Hits
23.9 / 21.1
29.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
28.5 / 16.9
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 32.3
32.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
NYI
OTT
NYI
ML
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
50%
2-2
67%
2-1-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0-1
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