TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-2-2 | Road
2
COLUMBUS
BLUE JACKETSCBJ
1-3-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Jet Greaves
#73 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jet Greaves | None-None | 2.00 | 0.917 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.917
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
BLUE JACKETS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
BLUE JACKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
COLUMBUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Columbus)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CBJ -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBJ)
TB By 1 goal
0.0%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.0%
CBJ By 1 goal
0.0%
CBJ By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Columbus
10
COLUMBUS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Columbus
3
COLUMBUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jackets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jackets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -9.0
D
Sim
Lightning (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
CBJ @ TB
5 - 2
Jan 24, 2026
TB @ CBJ
5 - 8
Oct 18, 2025
TB @ CBJ
2 - 3
Mar 4, 2025
CBJ @ TB
2 - 6
Dec 17, 2024
CBJ @ TB
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.4% more
Columbus: 31.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 24.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.5%
Columbus: 51.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 43.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+18.1% more
Tampa Bay: 3.8
vs
Columbus: 3.1
Power Play % (L5)
+17.7%
Tampa Bay: 23.2%
vs
Columbus: 5.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
2
CBJ Score
10.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 15.4
18.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
51.5 / 43.0
57.1 / 42.9
Hits
17.9 / 20.8
23.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
5.6 / 23.2
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 24.9
31.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 3.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBJ
TB
CBJ
TB
ML
50%
1-1
67%
2-1
100%
2-0
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
1-1
67%
2-1
50%
1-1
33%
1-2
TTL
50%
1-1
67%
2-1
0%
0-2
100%
3-0
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