SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
3-2 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
2-3 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.27
ERA
Ldr 2.79
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
69%
BLUE JAYS
31%
MARINERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.1%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.06
SEATTLE
Toronto
5.25
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
31% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.693
▲
OPS
.692
182
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+50.3% more
Toronto: 9.7
vs
Seattle: 6.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.4% more
Toronto: 8.6
vs
Seattle: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+27.0% more
Toronto: 17.5
vs
Seattle: 13.8
Walks (L5)
+22.9% more
Toronto: 4.6
vs
Seattle: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.1
2
TOR Score
5.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
9.7 / 6.4
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.5
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 13.8
20.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.8
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SEA
TOR
SEA
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
98-64
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-85-5
53%
81-71-10
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