MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
2-2-0 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
3-1-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 5.01 | 0.889 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.01
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.889
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
0%
CAPITALS
100%
WILD
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIN By 1 goal
19.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
29.6%
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
WSH @ MIN
0 - 5
Oct 17, 2025
MIN @ WSH
1 - 5
Mar 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
2 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
MIN @ WSH
4 - 3
Jan 23, 2024
WSH @ MIN
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+32.6%
Minnesota: 44.2%
vs
Washington: 11.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+27.4% more
Minnesota: 4.9
vs
Washington: 3.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.0% more
Minnesota: 33.7
vs
Washington: 28.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.6% more
Minnesota: 15.5
vs
Washington: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
1
WSH Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.4 / 15.5
14.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 48.0
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
25.2 / 22.3
23.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
11.6 / 44.2
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.3 / 33.7
45.0 / 14.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 4.9
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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