TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-2-1 | Road
1
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
3-1-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.89 | 0.935 | -- |
| John Gibson | None-None | 0.94 | 0.969 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.89
GAA
Ldr 0.94
0.935
Save %
Ldr 0.969
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
RED WINGS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TB By 1 goal
0.0%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.0%
DET By 1 goal
0.0%
DET By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
10
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -9.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 13, 2026
DET @ TB
3 - 4
Mar 12, 2026
DET @ TB
1 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TB @ DET
6 - 3
Oct 17, 2025
TB @ DET
1 - 2
Apr 11, 2025
DET @ TB
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+29.2% more
Detroit: 4.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+21.9% more
Detroit: 26.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 21.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.3%
Detroit: 51.7%
vs
Tampa Bay: 42.5%
Hits (L5)
+11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 21.2
vs
Detroit: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
1
DET Score
10.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.4 / 16.5
22.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
51.7 / 42.5
55.9 / 44.1
Hits
18.8 / 21.2
27.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
2772.0 / 3485.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.0 / 21.4
31.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
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