TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
1-2 | Road
8
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
2-1 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Emerson Hancock | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.86 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
20%
MARINERS
80%
BLUE JAYS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
12.8%
SEA By 3-4 runs
7.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6.27
TORONTO
Seattle
4.02
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.692
OPS
▲
.693
152
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.2% more
Toronto: 10.9
vs
Seattle: 7.3
Hits (L5)
+25.2% more
Toronto: 11.0
vs
Seattle: 8.2
Total Bases (L5)
+22.6% more
Toronto: 20.4
vs
Seattle: 15.8
Home Runs (L5)
+10.8% more
Toronto: 2.3
vs
Seattle: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.3
8
SEA Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 11.0
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 2.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.9
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 20.4
8.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TOR
SEA
TOR
ML
50%
81-81
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-71-10
45%
70-85-5
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