Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Lions TB @ DET

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

5-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Al-Quadin Muhammad
KEY GAME

Al-Quadin Muhammad

#97 | Linebacker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Al-Quadin Muhammad None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Detroit)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

15.9%

Lions Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TB By 1-6 points

7.9%

TB By 7-13 points

4.7%

DET By 1-6 points

12.9%

DET By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
TAMPA BAY
34
DETROIT
Simulated Score
27
TAMPA BAY
28
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2025 TB @ DET 9 - 24
Sep 15, 2024 TB @ DET 20 - 16
Jan 21, 2024 TB @ DET 23 - 31
Oct 15, 2023 DET @ TB 20 - 6
Dec 26, 2020 TB @ DET 47 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.1% more
Detroit: 125.4 vs Tampa Bay: 103.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Tampa Bay: 267.9 vs Detroit: 222.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 20.0 9
DET Score 34.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 20.8 17.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 222.8 / 267.9 215.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards 125.4 / 103.5 164.0 / 41.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 348.1 / 371.4 379.0 / 251.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.4 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.4 5.8 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
DET Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
67% 2-1-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 0 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 0 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 12 hours, 6 minutes ago
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
yardbarker 18 hours, 11 minutes ago