Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Seahawks HOU @ SEA

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

2-3  |  Road

19
FINAL
Mon, Oct 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

4-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
TEXANS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Seattle)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 SeahawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

8.7%

Seahawks Cover

91.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

HOU By 1-6 points

4.8%

HOU By 7-13 points

2.4%

SEA By 1-6 points

9.3%

SEA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
HOUSTON
39
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
24
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2025 HOU @ SEA 19 - 27
Dec 12, 2021 SEA @ HOU 33 - 13
Oct 29, 2017 HOU @ SEA 38 - 41
Sep 29, 2013 SEA @ HOU 23 - 20
Dec 13, 2009 SEA @ HOU 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.2% more
Seattle: 270.6 vs Houston: 214.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
Seattle: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +18.9% more
Seattle: 6.6 vs Houston: 5.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.4% more
Houston: 131.6 vs Seattle: 99.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 20.0 19
SEA Score 39.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 20.1 19.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 270.6 / 214.4 198.0 / 198.0
Rushing Yards 99.5 / 131.6 118.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 370.1 / 346.0 316.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.6 / 5.6 4.7 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
SEA Advantage
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 1-1-2
0% 0-4
50% 1-1-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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