Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Jaguars LAR @ JAX

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

4-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 9:30 AM ET
Wembley Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

4-2  |  Home

7
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
RAMS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Los Angeles)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

93.3%

Jaguars Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

LAR By 1-6 points

7.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

14.6%

JAX By 1-6 points

3.8%

JAX By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31
LOS ANGELES
10
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 LAR @ JAX 35 - 7
Dec 5, 2021 JAX @ LAR 7 - 37
Oct 15, 2017 LAR @ JAX 27 - 17
Oct 6, 2013 JAX @ LAR 20 - 34
Oct 18, 2009 LAR @ JAX 20 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Jacksonville: 0.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 262.7 vs Jacksonville: 207.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.0% more
Los Angeles: 5.9 vs Jacksonville: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Los Angeles: 357.5 vs Jacksonville: 309.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 31.0 35
JAX Score 10.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 20.5 21.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 207.5 / 262.7 264.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards 101.8 / 94.8 94.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 309.3 / 357.5 358.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.9 4.8 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
LAR
JAX
LAR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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