Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Browns MIA @ CLE

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-5  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

1-5  |  Home

31
Key Game
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Riley Patterson None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
BROWNS
0%
DOLPHINS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

41.5%

Browns Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

MIA By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

12.9%

CLE By 1-6 points

17.0%

CLE By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
MIAMI
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
23
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Browns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Browns (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Browns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 MIA @ CLE 6 - 31
Dec 29, 2024 MIA @ CLE 20 - 3
Nov 13, 2022 CLE @ MIA 17 - 39
Nov 24, 2019 MIA @ CLE 24 - 41
Sep 25, 2016 CLE @ MIA 24 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
Miami: 1.5 vs Cleveland: 1.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.7% more
Miami: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 4.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Miami: 0.4 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Miami: 204.2 vs Cleveland: 180.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 0.0 6
CLE Score 3.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 17.8 15.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 180.8 / 204.2 102.0 / 120.0
Rushing Yards 92.2 / 97.5 104.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 273.0 / 301.7 206.0 / 219.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 4.0 / 5.4 3.9 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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