Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Bears NO @ CHI

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jordan Howden
KEY GAME

Jordan Howden

#31 | Safety
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Jordan Howden None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
SAINTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

47.2%

Bears Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

NO By 1-6 points

16.1%

NO By 7-13 points

14.6%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.7%

CHI By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
NEW ORLEANS
28
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 NO @ CHI 14 - 26
Nov 5, 2023 CHI @ NO 17 - 24
Jan 10, 2021 CHI @ NO 9 - 21
Nov 1, 2020 NO @ CHI 26 - 23
Oct 20, 2019 NO @ CHI 36 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Chicago: 110.9 vs New Orleans: 99.5
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Chicago: 333.5 vs New Orleans: 303.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.3% more
Chicago: 222.5 vs New Orleans: 203.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 27.0 14
CHI Score 28.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 18.8 23.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 222.5 / 203.6 164.0 / 209.0
Rushing Yards 110.9 / 99.5 222.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 333.5 / 303.2 386.0 / 253.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.1 5.8 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
NO
CHI
NO
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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