Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Chiefs LV @ KC

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 1:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

3-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
RAIDERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Kansas City)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

6.7%

Chiefs Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LV By 1-6 points

3.8%

LV By 7-13 points

1.8%

KC By 1-6 points

7.9%

KC By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10
LAS VEGAS
31
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
27
LAS VEGAS
20
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 KC @ LV 30 - 27
Jan 4, 2026 KC @ LV 12 - 14
Oct 19, 2025 LV @ KC 0 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 LV @ KC 17 - 19
Oct 27, 2024 KC @ LV 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +37.6% more
Kansas City: 251.3 vs Las Vegas: 182.6
First Downs (L5) +31.2% more
Kansas City: 23.6 vs Las Vegas: 18.0
Total Yards (L5) +28.8% more
Kansas City: 370.5 vs Las Vegas: 287.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.1% more
Kansas City: 5.9 vs Las Vegas: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 10.0 0
KC Score 31.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 18.0 30.0 / 3.0
Net Passing Yards 251.3 / 182.6 282.0 / 70.0
Rushing Yards 119.2 / 105.0 152.0 / 25.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.3
Total Yards 370.5 / 287.7 434.0 / 95.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.9 5.6 / 3.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LV
KC
LV
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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