Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Chargers IND @ LAC

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

5-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Keenan Allen
KEY GAME

Keenan Allen

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Keenan Allen None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
COLTS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

47.2%

Chargers Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

IND By 1-6 points

16.1%

IND By 7-13 points

14.6%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.7%

LAC By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
INDIANAPOLIS
32
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
24
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 IND @ LAC 38 - 24
Dec 26, 2022 LAC @ IND 20 - 3
Sep 8, 2019 IND @ LAC 24 - 30
Sep 25, 2016 LAC @ IND 22 - 26
Oct 14, 2013 IND @ LAC 9 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs Indianapolis: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
Indianapolis: 23.1 vs Los Angeles: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 31.0 38
LAC Score 32.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 23.1 25.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 232.9 / 227.9 391.0 / 281.0
Rushing Yards 131.7 / 130.6 54.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 364.6 / 358.5 445.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.1 6.0 / 6.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
IND
LAC
IND
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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