Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Cowboys WSH @ DAL

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 4:25 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

2-3-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
COMMANDERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Dallas)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

15.9%

Cowboys Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

WSH By 1-6 points

7.9%

WSH By 7-13 points

4.7%

DAL By 1-6 points

12.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
WASHINGTON
34
DALLAS
Simulated Score
27
WASHINGTON
17
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Commanders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ DAL 20 - 37
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ WSH 30 - 23
Oct 19, 2025 WSH @ DAL 22 - 44
Jan 5, 2025 WSH @ DAL 23 - 19
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ WSH 34 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Dallas: 263.1 vs Washington: 202.8
Turnovers (L5) +62.0% more
Washington: 1.6 vs Dallas: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.0% more
Washington: 143.6 vs Dallas: 104.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 20.0 22
DAL Score 34.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 20.6 21.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 263.1 / 202.8 257.0 / 205.0
Rushing Yards 104.9 / 143.6 152.0 / 136.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 368.0 / 346.4 409.0 / 341.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.0 6.6 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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