Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ 49ers ATL @ SF

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 8:20 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Brian Robinson Jr.
KEY GAME

Brian Robinson Jr.

#15 | Running Back
@
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
Player
Brian Robinson Jr. None-None
Eddy Pineiro None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
49ERS
100%
FALCONS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Atlanta)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

76.2%

49ers Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

19.7%

SF By 1-6 points

10.7%

SF By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19
ATLANTA
9
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
27
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 ATL @ SF 10 - 20
Oct 16, 2022 SF @ ATL 14 - 28
Dec 19, 2021 ATL @ SF 13 - 31
Dec 15, 2019 ATL @ SF 29 - 22
Dec 18, 2016 SF @ ATL 13 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.0% more
Atlanta: 165.6 vs San Francisco: 77.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.1% more
Atlanta: 6.1 vs San Francisco: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +76.0% more
San Francisco: 1.7 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.6% more
San Francisco: 300.4 vs Atlanta: 237.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 19.0 10
SF Score 9.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 21.8 23.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 300.4 / 237.2 150.0 / 230.0
Rushing Yards 77.8 / 165.6 174.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 378.2 / 402.8 324.0 / 292.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 6.1 4.9 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATL
SF
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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