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PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

4-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Thu, Oct 16 • 8:15 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-4  |  Home

33
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
STEELERS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

58.5%

Bengals Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.5%

CIN By 1-6 points

15.3%

CIN By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
PITTSBURGH
17
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ PIT 27 - 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN @ PIT 12 - 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT @ CIN 31 - 33
Jan 4, 2025 CIN @ PIT 19 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 PIT @ CIN 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.4% more
Pittsburgh: 94.1 vs Cincinnati: 63.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.7% more
Pittsburgh: 5.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 292.3 vs Cincinnati: 264.0
Turnovers (L5) +104.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.0 31
CIN Score 17.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 17.7 27.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 200.4 / 198.2 328.0 / 249.0
Rushing Yards 63.6 / 94.1 142.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.7
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 264.0 / 292.3 470.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.3 6.5 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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