OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
1-2-0 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
0-3-0 | Home
8
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 4.00 | 0.892 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.00
--
Save %
0.892
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
SABRES
0%
SENATORS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
OTT By 1 goal
12.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.9% more
Ottawa: 29.0
vs
Buffalo: 20.9
Takeaways (L5)
+27.7% more
Ottawa: 4.9
vs
Buffalo: 3.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+20.4%
Ottawa: 61.6%
vs
Buffalo: 41.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+15.5%
Ottawa: 16.5%
vs
Buffalo: 1.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.0
4
BUF Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.6 / 13.7
20.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
41.2 / 61.6
35.1 / 64.9
Hits
20.9 / 29.0
29.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
1.0 / 16.5
100.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
30.3 / 30.6
27.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 4.9
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
OTT
BUF
OTT
ML
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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