TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-2-0 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
2-1-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.95 | 0.893 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.96 | 0.895 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.95
GAA
Ldr 1.96
0.893
Save %
Ldr 0.895
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
CAPITALS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TB By 1 goal
0.0%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.0%
WSH By 1 goal
0.0%
WSH By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Washington
10
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -9.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
WSH @ TB
1 - 3
Nov 22, 2025
TB @ WSH
5 - 3
Nov 8, 2025
WSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 14, 2025
TB @ WSH
2 - 3
Mar 1, 2025
TB @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+26.2% more
Washington: 28.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 22.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Washington: 44.2%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+27.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.6
vs
Washington: 3.4
Power Play % (L5)
+26.5%
Tampa Bay: 27.3%
vs
Washington: 0.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
2
WSH Score
10.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 16.3
8.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
44.2 / 40.5
53.6 / 46.4
Hits
26.3 / 27.8
23.0 / 8.0
Power Play %
0.8 / 27.3
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
28.4 / 22.5
28.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
3.4 / 4.6
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TB
WSH
TB
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
Contextual Game News
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