Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia Tech @ Duke GT @ DUKE

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

6-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

4-2  |  Home

18
Key Game
Aidan Birr
KEY GAME

Aidan Birr

#33 | Place kicker
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Aidan Birr None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA TECH
100%
📊
DUKE
0%
GEORGIA TECH --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Duke)
Georgia TechGT (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Tech Cover

1.6%

Duke Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

GT By 1-6 points

1.0%

GT By 7-13 points

0.4%

DUKE By 1-6 points

2.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
GEORGIA TECH
46
DUKE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA TECH
27
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Duke Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Duke (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Duke (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 GT @ DUKE 27 - 18
Oct 5, 2024 DUKE @ GT 14 - 24
Oct 8, 2022 DUKE @ GT 20 - 23
Oct 9, 2021 GT @ DUKE 31 - 27
Nov 28, 2020 DUKE @ GT 33 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.4% more
Georgia Tech: 231.5 vs Duke: 165.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Georgia Tech: 0.8 vs Duke: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GT Score 16.0 27
DUKE Score 46.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 24.5 26.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 165.8 / 231.5 68.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 447.2 / 459.1 441.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GT
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GT
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
GT
DUKE
GT
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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