Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Houston ARIZ @ HOU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

4-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

5-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
100%
📊
HOUSTON
0%
ARIZONA --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Houston)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

1.6%

Houston Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

1.0%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

0.4%

HOU By 1-6 points

2.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
ARIZONA
46
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Houston (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 ARIZ @ HOU 28 - 31
Nov 15, 2024 HOU @ ARIZ 3 - 27
Sep 8, 2018 ARIZ @ HOU 18 - 45
Sep 9, 2017 HOU @ ARIZ 19 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Houston: 143.2 vs Arizona: 128.1
Turnovers (L5) +31.9% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs Houston: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +18.0% more
Arizona: 23.1 vs Houston: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 16.0 28
HOU Score 46.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 23.1 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 143.2 / 128.1 232.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 380.1 / 405.0 396.0 / 381.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARIZ
HOU
ARIZ
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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