BAYLOR
BAYLORBAY
4-2 | Road
36
TCU
TCUTCU
4-2 | Home
42
Key Game
KEY GAME
Micah Gifford
#24 | Safety@
KEY GAME
Easton Black
#97 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Micah Gifford | None-None |
| Easton Black | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
0%
TCU
100%
BAYLOR
--
TCU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAY -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
BAY By 1-6 points
3.8%
BAY By 7-13 points
8.8%
TCU By 1-6 points
1.4%
TCU By 7-13 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
39
BAYLOR
TCU
11
TCU
Simulated Score
Baylor
24
BAYLOR
TCU
28
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Baylor
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
TCU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Baylor (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim
TCU (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u65.5
Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim
u65.5
Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 18, 2025
BAY @ TCU
36 - 42
Nov 2, 2024
TCU @ BAY
34 - 37
Nov 18, 2023
BAY @ TCU
17 - 42
Nov 19, 2022
TCU @ BAY
29 - 28
Nov 6, 2021
BAY @ TCU
28 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+38.4% more
Baylor: 147.4
vs
TCU: 90.7
First Downs (L5)
+19.9% more
Baylor: 25.9
vs
TCU: 20.7
Total Yards (L5)
+15.2% more
Baylor: 487.1
vs
TCU: 413.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+9.0% more
TCU: 0.5
vs
Baylor: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
39.0
36
TCU Score
11.0
42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.7 / 25.9
21.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
90.7 / 147.4
196.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.46 / 0.35
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
413.0 / 487.1
427.0 / 439.0
Turnovers
1.8 / 1.7
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
BAY
TCU
BAY
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
TTL
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
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