Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / LSU @ Vanderbilt LSU @ VAN

LSU

LSULSU

5-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

5-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
@
Nick Rinaldi
KEY GAME

Nick Rinaldi

#24 | Linebacker
Player
Grant Chadwick None-None
Nick Rinaldi None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
100%
📊
VANDERBILT
0%
LSU --
VANDERBILT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Vanderbilt)
LSULSU (-3.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

30.9%

Vanderbilt Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

LSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

LSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

VAN By 1-6 points

16.5%

VAN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
LSU
46
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
10
LSU
45
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Vanderbilt (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 LSU @ VAN 24 - 31
Nov 23, 2024 VAN @ LSU 17 - 24
Oct 3, 2020 LSU @ VAN 41 - 7
Sep 21, 2019 LSU @ VAN 66 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +55.7% more
Vanderbilt: 188.2 vs LSU: 120.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.5 vs LSU: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Vanderbilt: 435.7 vs LSU: 382.7
First Downs (L5) +8.0% more
Vanderbilt: 22.9 vs LSU: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 39.0 24
VAN Score 46.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 21.2 20.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 188.2 / 120.8 239.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 435.7 / 382.7 399.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
LSU
VAN
LSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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