Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington @ Michigan WASH @ MICH

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

5-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
@
Hudson Hollenbeck
KEY GAME

Hudson Hollenbeck

#90 | Punter
Player
Luke Dunne None-None
Hudson Hollenbeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
100%
📊
MICHIGAN
0%
WASHINGTON --
MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Michigan)
WashingtonWASH (-3.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

30.9%

Michigan Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

WASH By 1-6 points

12.9%

WASH By 7-13 points

9.6%

MICH By 1-6 points

16.5%

MICH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WASHINGTON
46
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON
27
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Michigan (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 WASH @ MICH 7 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 MICH @ WASH 17 - 27
Jan 8, 2024 WASH @ MICH 13 - 34
Sep 11, 2021 WASH @ MICH 10 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.0% more
Michigan: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Michigan: 185.9 vs Washington: 152.6
First Downs (L5) +23.4% more
Washington: 24.5 vs Michigan: 18.7
Total Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Washington: 455.5 vs Michigan: 383.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 39.0 7
MICH Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 24.5 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 185.9 / 152.6 187.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 383.8 / 455.5 417.0 / 249.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
MICH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
WASH
MICH
WASH
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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