Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ UCF WVU @ UCF

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

3-3  |  Home

45
Key Game
Jason Chambers
KEY GAME

Jason Chambers

#36 | Cornerback
@
Antione Jackson
KEY GAME

Antione Jackson

#7 | Defensive Back
Player
Jason Chambers None-None
Antione Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
0%
📊
UCF
100%
WEST VIRGINIA --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (West Virginia)
West VirginiaWVU (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

97.7%

UCF Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WVU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

WVU By 1-6 points

3.8%

WVU By 7-13 points

8.8%

UCF By 1-6 points

1.4%

UCF By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WEST VIRGINIA
11
UCF
Simulated Score
24
WEST VIRGINIA
28
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI West Virginia Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCF Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI West Virginia (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim UCF (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 WVU @ UCF 13 - 45
Nov 23, 2024 UCF @ WVU 21 - 31
Oct 28, 2023 WVU @ UCF 41 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
West Virginia: 1.6 vs UCF: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +17.7% more
UCF: 21.9 vs West Virginia: 18.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
UCF: 407.5 vs West Virginia: 346.8
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
UCF: 0.6 vs West Virginia: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 39.0 13
UCF Score 11.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 18.6 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 198.0 / 192.8 255.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 407.5 / 346.8 578.0 / 210.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
WVU
UCF
WVU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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theintermountain 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
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si 6 days, 23 hours ago