Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ Toledo KENT @ TOL

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 2:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

3-3  |  Home

45
Key Game
Da'Realyst Clark
KEY GAME

Da'Realyst Clark

#8 | Wide Receiver
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Da'Realyst Clark None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
100%
📊
TOLEDO
0%
KENT STATE --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Toledo)
Kent StateKENT (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

2.3%

Toledo Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

KENT By 1-6 points

1.4%

KENT By 7-13 points

0.5%

TOL By 1-6 points

3.8%

TOL By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11
KENT STATE
39
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
17
KENT STATE
31
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 KENT @ TOL 10 - 45
Oct 15, 2022 KENT @ TOL 31 - 52
Nov 5, 2019 KENT @ TOL 33 - 35
Nov 15, 2018 TOL @ KENT 56 - 34
Oct 10, 2015 KENT @ TOL 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +116.3% more
Toledo: 196.1 vs Kent State: 90.7
First Downs (L5) +74.1% more
Toledo: 23.2 vs Kent State: 13.3
Total Yards (L5) +69.1% more
Toledo: 440.3 vs Kent State: 260.4
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Toledo: 1.3 vs Kent State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 11.0 10
TOL Score 39.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 13.3 29.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 196.1 / 90.7 178.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.54 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 440.3 / 260.4 552.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOL
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
KENT
TOL
KENT
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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