Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ UL Monroe TROY @ ULM

TROY

TROYTROY

4-2  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
0%
📊
UL MONROE
100%
TROY --
UL MONROE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Troy)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

97.7%

UL Monroe Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TROY -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

TROY By 1-6 points

3.8%

TROY By 7-13 points

8.8%

ULM By 1-6 points

1.4%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TROY
11
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
31
TROY
17
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Troy (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 TROY @ ULM 37 - 14
Sep 28, 2024 ULM @ TROY 13 - 9
Nov 11, 2023 TROY @ ULM 45 - 14
Nov 19, 2022 ULM @ TROY 16 - 34
Sep 25, 2021 TROY @ ULM 16 - 29
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +26.0% more
Troy: 22.0 vs UL Monroe: 16.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Troy: 386.3 vs UL Monroe: 319.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Troy: 0.4 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
UL Monroe: 155.2 vs Troy: 125.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 39.0 37
ULM Score 11.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 22.0 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 155.2 / 125.1 98.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 319.5 / 386.3 326.0 / 314.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
TROY
ULM
TROY
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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