Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Purdue @ Northwestern PUR @ NU

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

2-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:00 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

4-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Smiley Bradford
KEY GAME

Smiley Bradford

#1 | Defensive Back
@
Ricky Ahumaraeze
KEY GAME

Ricky Ahumaraeze

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Smiley Bradford None-None
Ricky Ahumaraeze None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
100%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
0%
PURDUE --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Northwestern)
PurduePUR (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

30.9%

Northwestern Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

PUR By 1-6 points

12.9%

PUR By 7-13 points

9.6%

NU By 1-6 points

16.5%

NU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
PURDUE
46
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
27
PURDUE
24
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Northwestern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Purdue Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Northwestern (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Purdue (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 PUR @ NU 0 - 19
Nov 2, 2024 NU @ PUR 26 - 20
Nov 18, 2023 PUR @ NU 15 - 23
Nov 19, 2022 NU @ PUR 9 - 17
Nov 20, 2021 PUR @ NU 32 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Northwestern: 170.1 vs Purdue: 157.1
Turnovers (L5) +61.5% more
Purdue: 2.7 vs Northwestern: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Purdue: 408.6 vs Northwestern: 357.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 39.0 0
NU Score 46.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 23.2 24.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 170.1 / 157.1 232.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 357.4 / 408.6 364.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
PUR
NU
PUR
ML
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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