Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ Marshall TXST @ MRSH

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-3  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

3-3  |  Home

40
Key Game
Craig Royal Jr.
KEY GAME

Craig Royal Jr.

#3 | Defensive Back
@
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
KEY GAME

Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

#5 | Wide Receiver
Player
Craig Royal Jr. None-None
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
100%
📊
MARSHALL
0%
TEXAS ST --
MARSHALL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Marshall)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

30.9%

Marshall Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

TXST By 1-6 points

12.9%

TXST By 7-13 points

9.6%

MRSH By 1-6 points

16.5%

MRSH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TEXAS STATE
46
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS STATE
28
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Marshall (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o66.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 TXST @ MRSH 37 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.0% more
Marshall: 0.7 vs Texas State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Texas State: 263.4 vs Marshall: 215.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs Marshall: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Texas State: 497.4 vs Marshall: 423.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 39.0 37
MRSH Score 46.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 22.7 27.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 215.3 / 263.4 186.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 423.7 / 497.4 466.0 / 558.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
MRSH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
TXST
MRSH
TXST
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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