Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Coastal @ App State CCU @ APP

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

3-3  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Kadon Crawford
KEY GAME

Kadon Crawford

#45 | Defensive Back
@
Aiden Benton
KEY GAME

Aiden Benton

#33 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kadon Crawford None-None
Aiden Benton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
COASTAL --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Coastal Carolina)
CoastalCCU (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

97.7%

App State Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CCU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCU)

CCU By 1-6 points

3.8%

CCU By 7-13 points

8.8%

APP By 1-6 points

1.4%

APP By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
COASTAL CAROLINA
11
APP STATE
Simulated Score
24
COASTAL CAROLINA
28
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Coastal Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coastal (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim App State (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 CCU @ APP 45 - 37
Nov 7, 2024 APP @ CCU 24 - 38
Oct 10, 2023 CCU @ APP 27 - 24
Nov 3, 2022 APP @ CCU 28 - 35
Oct 20, 2021 CCU @ APP 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.8% more
Coastal Carolina: 181.3 vs App State: 134.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Coastal Carolina: 1.8 vs App State: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +30.1% more
App State: 392.9 vs Coastal Carolina: 302.0
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
App State: 20.4 vs Coastal Carolina: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 39.0 45
APP Score 11.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 15.9 27.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 134.6 / 181.3 132.0 / 246.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 392.9 / 302.0 410.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
CCU
APP
CCU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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