Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan St @ Indiana MSU @ IU

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

6-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Rakeem Johnson
KEY GAME

Rakeem Johnson

#55 | Offensive Lineman
@
Nico Radicic
KEY GAME

Nico Radicic

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Rakeem Johnson None-None
Nico Radicic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
MICHIGAN ST --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indiana)
Michigan StMSU (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

30.9%

Indiana Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

MSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

MSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

IU By 1-6 points

16.5%

IU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MICHIGAN STATE
46
INDIANA
Simulated Score
20
MICHIGAN STATE
27
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Indiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Indiana (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Indiana (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 MSU @ IU 13 - 38
Nov 2, 2024 IU @ MSU 47 - 10
Nov 18, 2023 MSU @ IU 24 - 21
Nov 19, 2022 IU @ MSU 39 - 31
Oct 16, 2021 MSU @ IU 20 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +67.4% more
Indiana: 180.9 vs Michigan State: 108.1
Total Yards (L5) +44.4% more
Indiana: 428.5 vs Michigan State: 296.6
First Downs (L5) +40.3% more
Indiana: 24.5 vs Michigan State: 17.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 39.0 13
IU Score 46.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 17.5 24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 180.9 / 108.1 132.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 428.5 / 296.6 464.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
MSU
IU
MSU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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