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UNLV

UNLVUNLV

6-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

4-2  |  Home

56
Key Game
Kamuela Ka'aihue
KEY GAME

Kamuela Ka'aihue

#8 | Linebacker
@
Colton Boomer
KEY GAME

Colton Boomer

#35 | Place kicker
Player
Kamuela Ka'aihue None-None
Colton Boomer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
100%
📊
BOISE ST
0%
UNLV --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Boise State)
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

30.9%

Boise St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

UNLV By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNLV By 7-13 points

9.6%

BOIS By 1-6 points

16.5%

BOIS By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
UNLV
46
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
20
UNLV
31
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boise St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boise St (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Boise St (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o62.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 UNLV @ BOIS 21 - 38
Oct 18, 2025 UNLV @ BOIS 31 - 56
Dec 6, 2024 UNLV @ BOIS 7 - 21
Oct 25, 2024 BOIS @ UNLV 29 - 24
Dec 2, 2023 BOIS @ UNLV 44 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.0% more
Boise State: 1.3 vs UNLV: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Boise State: 24.6 vs UNLV: 21.7
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
Boise State: 0.6 vs UNLV: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.0% more
UNLV: 197.1 vs Boise State: 169.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 39.0 31
BOIS Score 46.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 21.7 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 169.5 / 197.1 294.0 / 261.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 425.8 / 449.0 558.0 / 476.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
UNLV
BOIS
UNLV
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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