SMU
SMUSMU
4-2 | Road
35
CLEMSON
CLEMSONCLEM
3-3 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Wade McSparron
#43 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Nolan Hauser
#81 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Wade McSparron | None-None |
| Nolan Hauser | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
100%
CLEMSON
0%
SMU
--
CLEMSON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Clemson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)
SMU By 1-6 points
12.9%
SMU By 7-13 points
9.6%
CLEM By 1-6 points
16.5%
CLEM By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
39
SMU
Clemson
46
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
SMU
17
SMU
Clemson
31
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Clemson
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Clemson
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Clemson (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Clemson (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 18, 2025
SMU @ CLEM
35 - 24
Dec 7, 2024
CLEM @ SMU
34 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+80.7% more
Clemson: 2.0
vs
SMU: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5)
+32.9% more
Clemson: 152.8
vs
SMU: 115.0
First Downs (L5)
+19.4% more
Clemson: 24.0
vs
SMU: 20.1
Total Yards (L5)
+17.9% more
Clemson: 456.8
vs
SMU: 387.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
39.0
35
CLEM Score
46.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.0 / 20.1
19.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards
152.8 / 115.0
35.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.41
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards
456.8 / 387.5
352.0 / 429.0
Turnovers
2.0 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: -5.1
CLEM
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1
(25.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: -5.1
CLEM
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
SMU
CLEM
SMU
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
ATS
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
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