MEMPHIS
MEMPHISMEM
6-0 | Road
24
UAB
UABUAB
2-4 | Home
31
Key Game
KEY GAME
Taylor Burton
#90 | Defensive Lineman@
KEY GAME
Jonah Delange
#39 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Taylor Burton | None-None |
| Jonah Delange | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
0%
UAB
100%
MEMPHIS
--
UAB
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UAB +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)
MEM By 1-6 points
16.9%
MEM By 7-13 points
18.5%
UAB By 1-6 points
14.2%
UAB By 7-13 points
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
16
MEMPHIS
UAB
11
UAB
Simulated Score
Memphis
27
MEMPHIS
UAB
31
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Memphis
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
UAB
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UAB (+21.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Sim
UAB (+21.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u62.5
Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim
u62.5
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 18, 2025
MEM @ UAB
24 - 31
Nov 16, 2024
UAB @ MEM
18 - 53
Oct 21, 2023
MEM @ UAB
45 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+63.3% more
Memphis: 234.7
vs
UAB: 86.1
First Downs (L5)
+21.8% more
Memphis: 25.2
vs
UAB: 19.7
Total Yards (L5)
+18.8% more
Memphis: 462.8
vs
UAB: 375.7
Turnovers (L5)
+11.8% more
Memphis: 1.4
vs
UAB: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
16.0
24
UAB Score
11.0
31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.7 / 25.2
25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
86.1 / 234.7
219.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.69 / 0.45
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
375.7 / 462.8
470.0 / 362.0
Turnovers
1.2 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 16.2
ATS +/-: +6.5
UAB
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 16.2
ATS +/-: +6.5
UAB
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.1
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
MEM
UAB
MEM
ML
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
ATS
50%
2-2-1
60%
3-2
75%
3-1-1
40%
2-3
TTL
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
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