Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Arizona St TTU @ ASU

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

6-0  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 4:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

4-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Stone Harrington
KEY GAME

Stone Harrington

#48 | Place kicker
@
Martell Hughes
KEY GAME

Martell Hughes

#8 | Linebacker
Player
Stone Harrington None-None
Martell Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
0%
📊
ARIZONA ST
100%
TEXAS TECH --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Texas Tech)
Texas TechTTU (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

97.7%

Arizona St Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TTU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-6 points

3.8%

TTU By 7-13 points

8.8%

ASU By 1-6 points

1.4%

ASU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TEXAS TECH
11
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS TECH
31
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Arizona St (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 TTU @ ASU 22 - 26
Sep 21, 2024 ASU @ TTU 22 - 30
Sep 16, 2017 ASU @ TTU 45 - 52
Sep 10, 2016 TTU @ ASU 55 - 68
Dec 30, 2013 ASU @ TTU 23 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.3% more
Texas Tech: 1.3 vs Arizona State: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +26.9% more
Texas Tech: 531.2 vs Arizona State: 388.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Texas Tech: 251.5 vs Arizona State: 190.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Arizona State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 39.0 22
ASU Score 11.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 24.8 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 190.5 / 251.5 75.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 388.2 / 531.2 394.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
TTU
ASU
TTU
ML
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
TTL
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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