Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ Florida MSST @ FLA

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 4:15 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

2-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Jamroc Grimsley
KEY GAME

Jamroc Grimsley

#26 | Cornerback
@
Joseph Mbatchou
KEY GAME

Joseph Mbatchou

#97 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Jamroc Grimsley None-None
Joseph Mbatchou None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
📊
FLORIDA
100%
MISSISSIPPI ST --
FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Mississippi State)
Mississippi StMSST (-3.5) 0 FloridaFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

97.7%

Florida Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSST -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-6 points

3.8%

MSST By 7-13 points

8.8%

FLA By 1-6 points

1.4%

FLA By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MISSISSIPPI STATE
11
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
20
MISSISSIPPI STATE
31
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Florida (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 MSST @ FLA 21 - 23
Sep 21, 2024 FLA @ MSST 45 - 28
Sep 29, 2018 FLA @ MSST 13 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.8% more
Mississippi State: 165.2 vs Florida: 114.3
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Mississippi State: 19.1 vs Florida: 17.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.9% more
Florida: 1.8 vs Mississippi State: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 39.0 21
FLA Score 11.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 19.1 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 114.3 / 165.2 172.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 344.2 / 348.6 452.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
FLA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
MSST
FLA
MSST
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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