Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ Virginia WSU @ UVA

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

3-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 6:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

5-1  |  Home

22
Key Game
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Stevens None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
WASHINGTON ST --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Virginia)
Washington StWSU (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

30.9%

Virginia Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

WSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

UVA By 1-6 points

16.5%

UVA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WASHINGTON STATE
46
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON STATE
27
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Virginia (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 WSU @ UVA 20 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.3% more
Virginia: 177.1 vs Washington State: 108.4
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Virginia: 411.6 vs Washington State: 336.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Washington State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +11.6% more
Virginia: 22.1 vs Washington State: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 39.0 20
UVA Score 46.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 19.8 13.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 177.1 / 108.4 122.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 411.6 / 336.2 301.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
WSU
UVA
WSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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