Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Rutgers ORE @ RUTG

OREGON

OREGONORE

5-1  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 6:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

3-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Na'eem Offord
KEY GAME

Na'eem Offord

#2 | Defensive Back
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Na'eem Offord None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
0%
📊
RUTGERS
100%
OREGON --
RUTGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

30.9%

Rutgers Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

ORE By 1-6 points

16.5%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.3%

RUTG By 1-6 points

12.9%

RUTG By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
46
OREGON
39
RUTGERS
Simulated Score
17
OREGON
38
RUTGERS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rutgers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rutgers (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Rutgers (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o59.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 ORE @ RUTG 56 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Oregon: 166.8 vs Rutgers: 127.2
First Downs (L5) +29.5% more
Rutgers: 26.1 vs Oregon: 20.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Rutgers: 443.9 vs Oregon: 404.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 46.0 56
RUTG Score 39.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 20.2 12.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 127.2 / 166.8 123.0 / 415.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.28 / 0.73
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 443.9 / 404.4 202.0 / 750.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
99%TICKETS1%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
ORE
RUTG
ORE
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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