Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Kentucky TEX @ UK

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

4-2  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Wardell Mack
KEY GAME

Wardell Mack

#27 | Defensive Back
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Wardell Mack None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
100%
📊
KENTUCKY
0%
TEXAS --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kentucky)
TexasTEX (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

30.9%

Kentucky Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

TEX By 1-6 points

12.9%

TEX By 7-13 points

9.6%

UK By 1-6 points

16.5%

UK By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TEXAS
46
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS
31
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kentucky Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kentucky (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Kentucky (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 TEX @ UK 16 - 13
Nov 23, 2024 UK @ TEX 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +123.0% more
Kentucky: 2.1 vs Texas: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +17.2% more
Texas: 380.4 vs Kentucky: 314.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Texas: 146.1 vs Kentucky: 125.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas: 0.4 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 39.0 16
UK Score 46.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 18.4 26.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 125.8 / 146.1 137.0 / 47.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 314.8 / 380.4 395.0 / 179.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
UK
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TEX
UK
TEX
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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