Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Colorado St HAW @ CSU

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

5-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-4  |  Home

19
Key Game
Ka'eo Akana
KEY GAME

Ka'eo Akana

#10 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tommy Maher
KEY GAME

Tommy Maher

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Ka'eo Akana None-None
Tommy Maher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
100%
📊
COLORADO ST
0%
HAWAI'I --
COLORADO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Colorado State)
Hawai'iHAW (-3.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

30.9%

Colorado St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

HAW By 1-6 points

12.9%

HAW By 7-13 points

9.6%

CSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

CSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
HAWAI'I
46
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
27
HAWAI'I
31
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colorado St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colorado St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Colorado St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 HAW @ CSU 31 - 19
Nov 25, 2023 CSU @ HAW 24 - 27
Oct 22, 2022 HAW @ CSU 13 - 17
Nov 20, 2021 CSU @ HAW 45 - 50
Aug 25, 2018 HAW @ CSU 43 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.7% more
Colorado State: 164.3 vs Hawai'i: 104.8
Turnovers (L5) +51.1% more
Hawai'i: 1.4 vs Colorado State: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Hawai'i: 455.7 vs Colorado State: 353.7
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Hawai'i: 23.5 vs Colorado State: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 39.0 31
CSU Score 46.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 23.5 15.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 164.3 / 104.8 85.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 353.7 / 455.7 261.0 / 435.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
CSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
CSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
HAW
CSU
HAW
ML
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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