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FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

3-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

5-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Tyclean Luman
KEY GAME

Tyclean Luman

#15 | Defensive Back
@
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Tyclean Luman None-None
Nico Gramatica None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
FAU --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (South Florida)
FAUFAU (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

30.9%

South Florida Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

FAU By 1-6 points

12.9%

FAU By 7-13 points

9.6%

USF By 1-6 points

16.5%

USF By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
46
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
27
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Florida (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim South Florida (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o72.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u72.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 FAU @ USF 13 - 48
Nov 1, 2024 USF @ FAU 44 - 21
Oct 14, 2023 FAU @ USF 56 - 14
Sep 14, 2013 FAU @ USF 28 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +97.3% more
South Florida: 261.3 vs Florida Atlantic: 132.4
Turnovers (L5) +43.9% more
South Florida: 2.4 vs Florida Atlantic: 1.6
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
South Florida: 26.8 vs Florida Atlantic: 22.6
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
South Florida: 520.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 448.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 39.0 13
USF Score 46.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.8 / 22.6 26.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 261.3 / 132.4 259.0 / 23.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 520.6 / 448.9 522.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
FAU
USF
FAU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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