Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Auburn MIZ @ AUB

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

5-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:45 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Kensley Louidor-Faustin
KEY GAME

Kensley Louidor-Faustin

#7 | Safety
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Kensley Louidor-Faustin None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
100%
📊
AUBURN
0%
MISSOURI --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Auburn)
MissouriMIZ (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

30.9%

Auburn Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

MIZ By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIZ By 7-13 points

9.6%

AUB By 1-6 points

16.5%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MISSOURI
46
AUBURN
Simulated Score
24
MISSOURI
27
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Auburn (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 MIZ @ AUB 23 - 17
Oct 19, 2024 AUB @ MIZ 17 - 21
Sep 24, 2022 MIZ @ AUB 14 - 17
Sep 23, 2017 AUB @ MIZ 51 - 14
Dec 7, 2013 MIZ @ AUB 42 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.7% more
Missouri: 1.2 vs Auburn: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.9% more
Missouri: 237.9 vs Auburn: 128.7
Total Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Missouri: 448.3 vs Auburn: 295.7
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Missouri: 23.8 vs Auburn: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 39.0 23
AUB Score 46.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 23.8 19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 128.7 / 237.9 150.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 295.7 / 448.3 357.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
MIZ
AUB
MIZ
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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