Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cincinnati @ Oklahoma St CIN @ OKST

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

5-1  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
@
Cooper Lai
KEY GAME

Cooper Lai

#29 | Safety
Player
Max Fletcher None-None
Cooper Lai None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CINCINNATI
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
CINCINNATI --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CincinnatiCIN (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cincinnati Cover

36.0%

Oklahoma St Cover

64.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OKST +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKST)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

18.5%

OKST By 1-6 points

14.2%

OKST By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
CINCINNATI
11
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
24
CINCINNATI
28
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cincinnati Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma St (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (+21.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 CIN @ OKST 49 - 17
Oct 28, 2023 CIN @ OKST 13 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
Cincinnati: 185.4 vs Oklahoma State: 101.2
Total Yards (L5) +36.3% more
Cincinnati: 430.6 vs Oklahoma State: 274.2
First Downs (L5) +30.4% more
Cincinnati: 19.7 vs Oklahoma State: 13.7
Turnovers (L5) +61.0% more
Oklahoma State: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 16.0 49
OKST Score 11.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.7 / 19.7 21.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 101.2 / 185.4 228.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.4 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 274.2 / 430.6 377.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
CIN
OKST
CIN
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 4 hours, 44 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 4 hours, 46 minutes ago
David Pollack's Bold Cam Coleman Comparison Draws Fiery Backlash…
headtopics 2 days, 23 hours ago
Rutgers Crushed by Indiana 47-15 as Schiano Searches for Answers
si 3 days, 10 hours ago
Texas Enters Red River Showdown as No. 1, but Oklahoma Has Nothi…
si 3 days, 10 hours ago