Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah @ BYU UTAH @ BYU

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

5-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 8:00 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

6-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
@
Siale Esera
KEY GAME

Siale Esera

#54 | Linebacker
Player
Orion Phillips None-None
Siale Esera None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
0%
📊
BYU
100%
UTAH --
BYU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Utah)
UtahUTAH (-3.5) 0 BYUBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah Cover

97.7%

BYU Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTAH -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-6 points

3.8%

UTAH By 7-13 points

8.8%

BYU By 1-6 points

1.4%

BYU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
UTAH
11
BYU
Simulated Score
24
UTAH
27
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Utah Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim BYU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim BYU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 UTAH @ BYU 21 - 24
Nov 9, 2024 BYU @ UTAH 22 - 21
Sep 11, 2021 UTAH @ BYU 17 - 26
Aug 29, 2019 UTAH @ BYU 30 - 12
Nov 24, 2018 BYU @ UTAH 27 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs BYU: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +51.9% more
BYU: 1.6 vs Utah: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 39.0 21
BYU Score 11.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 24.4 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 216.0 / 230.0 202.0 / 226.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 437.4 / 425.2 368.0 / 470.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
BYU
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
BYU
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
UTAH
BYU
UTAH
ML
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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