Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ New Mexico NEV @ UNM

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-5  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 9:45 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

3-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Drew Speech
KEY GAME

Drew Speech

#12 | Safety
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Drew Speech None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
NEVADA --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

30.9%

New Mexico Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

NEV By 1-6 points

12.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

9.6%

UNM By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEVADA
46
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
24
NEVADA
27
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim New Mexico (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 NEV @ UNM 22 - 24
Oct 28, 2023 UNM @ NEV 24 - 34
Nov 14, 2020 NEV @ UNM 27 - 20
Nov 2, 2019 UNM @ NEV 10 - 21
Nov 5, 2016 NEV @ UNM 26 - 35
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +23.1% more
New Mexico: 20.4 vs Nevada: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
New Mexico: 365.5 vs Nevada: 298.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs Nevada: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 39.0 22
UNM Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 16.6 22.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 125.7 / 129.6 210.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 365.5 / 298.7 348.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 2.6 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
NEV
UNM
NEV
ML
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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