Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ Minnesota NEB @ MINN

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

5-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Oct 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
@
Emmanuel Karmo
KEY GAME

Emmanuel Karmo

#2 | Linebacker
Player
Kyle Cunanan None-None
Emmanuel Karmo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
100%
📊
MINNESOTA
0%
NEBRASKA --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Minnesota)
NebraskaNEB (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

30.9%

Minnesota Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

NEB By 1-6 points

12.9%

NEB By 7-13 points

9.6%

MINN By 1-6 points

16.5%

MINN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEBRASKA
46
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
NEBRASKA
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Minnesota Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Minnesota (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Minnesota (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2025 NEB @ MINN 6 - 24
Aug 31, 2023 NEB @ MINN 10 - 13
Nov 5, 2022 MINN @ NEB 20 - 13
Oct 16, 2021 NEB @ MINN 23 - 30
Dec 12, 2020 MINN @ NEB 24 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.8% more
Nebraska: 1.6 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Nebraska: 136.7 vs Minnesota: 79.1
Total Yards (L5) +28.8% more
Nebraska: 410.6 vs Minnesota: 292.3
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
Nebraska: 22.3 vs Minnesota: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 39.0 6
MINN Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 22.3 18.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 79.1 / 136.7 186.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 292.3 / 410.6 339.0 / 213.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
NEB
MINN
NEB
ML
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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