Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ Utah State SJSU @ USU

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

2-4  |  Road

25
FINAL
Fri, Oct 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

3-3  |  Home

30
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Kahanu Davis
KEY GAME

Kahanu Davis

#7 | Wide Receiver
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Kahanu Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
📊
UTAH STATE
100%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

97.7%

Utah State Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

SJSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

USU By 1-6 points

1.4%

USU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SAN JOSÉ STATE
11
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
31
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Utah State Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San José St (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim Utah State (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2025 SJSU @ USU 25 - 30
Oct 21, 2023 USU @ SJSU 21 - 42
Nov 19, 2022 SJSU @ USU 31 - 35
Nov 13, 2021 USU @ SJSU 48 - 17
Nov 10, 2018 SJSU @ USU 24 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
San José State: 0.5 vs Utah State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +97.6% more
Utah State: 183.6 vs San José State: 92.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 39.0 25
USU Score 11.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 21.8 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 183.6 / 92.9 130.0 / 194.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 446.8 / 423.1 461.0 / 534.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
SJSU
USU
SJSU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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