UTEP
UTEPUTEP
1-5 | Road
35
SAM HOUSTON
SAM HOUSTONSHSU
0-6 | Home
17
Key Game
KEY GAME
Carlos Arreola
#91 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Dylan Frazier
#97 | Defensive Tackle| Player | |
|---|---|
| Carlos Arreola | None-None |
| Dylan Frazier | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
0%
SAM HOUSTON
100%
UTEP
--
SAM HOUSTON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UTEP)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTEP -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)
UTEP By 1-6 points
3.8%
UTEP By 7-13 points
8.8%
SHSU By 1-6 points
1.4%
SHSU By 7-13 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
UTEP
39
UTEP
Sam Houston
11
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
UTEP
24
UTEP
Sam Houston
27
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
UTEP
Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim
Sam Houston
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
UTEP (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim
Sam Houston (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 15, 2025
UTEP @ SHSU
35 - 17
Oct 3, 2024
SHSU @ UTEP
41 - 21
Oct 25, 2023
UTEP @ SHSU
37 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+42.6% more
UTEP: 2.5
vs
Sam Houston: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+24.6% more
Sam Houston: 105.3
vs
UTEP: 84.5
First Downs (L5)
+10.1% more
Sam Houston: 15.3
vs
UTEP: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score
39.0
35
SHSU Score
11.0
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
15.3 / 13.9
20.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
105.3 / 84.5
159.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.2 / 0.3
0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards
270.3 / 278.1
398.0 / 411.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -25.0
ATS +/-: -8.2
SHSU
Advantage
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -25.0
ATS +/-: -8.2
SHSU
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +6.3
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
UTEP
SHSU
UTEP
ML
75%
3-1
100%
5-0
100%
4-0
80%
4-1
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-5
25%
1-3
0%
0-5
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
5-0
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
Contextual Game News
