TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
0-2-0 | Road
4
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
3-0-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Nikita Zadorov
#91 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Nikita Zadorov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
BRUINS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1 goal
0.0%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.0%
BOS By 1 goal
0.0%
BOS By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Boston
10
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Boston
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -9.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
TB @ BOS
2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 3
Feb 1, 2026
BOS @ TB
5 - 6
Oct 13, 2025
TB @ BOS
4 - 3
Mar 15, 2025
TB @ BOS
6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+28.5% more
Boston: 3.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.5% more
Boston: 27.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 22.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.4%
Boston: 53.3%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.9%
Hits (L5)
+16.9% more
Tampa Bay: 31.2
vs
Boston: 25.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
4
BOS Score
10.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.8 / 17.5
12.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 44.9
68.3 / 31.7
Hits
25.9 / 31.2
31.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
2442.0 / 4091.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.8 / 22.3
33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 2.4
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
TTL
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
Bryan Baker's Dominance Out of Bullpen Puts Rays One Win from AL…
!role~Preview!mt~photo!fmt~JPEG%20Baseline)
Flyers Land Michael Bunting in Bid to Stop Early Season Skid
Rays Capitalize on Yankees' Defensive Woes, Take 2-0 ALDS Lead